If Medium is Going Public (IPO) Then Everything Makes Sense
It’s all about the roundup numbers. (I know this is Substack but there is still interest in this topic)
Did you notice that there is a monthly roundup of what happens on Medium each month?
Medium has been pushing it hard since August which also happened right after the last Medium Partner Program update.
During each monthly wrap, there is a section called Medium by the numbers.
Let’s look at what it was featuring during August.
First, Medium is saying how widespread the stories are in terms of other social platforms.
The second point shows how X is a big driver of traffic for Medium, as my last research Medium is just 5% of the size of X (formally Twitter).
That means Medium is capable of taking market share from X based on the number of readers that came from that Month.
Medium is also showcasing how effective their internal marketing for stories Daily Digest email is working.
They have actually heavily focused on numbers which is useful to present to an investor and not the reader or the writer.
The only thing important to the writer is Medium is growing and the earnings will not keep cutting down.
Now September comes this part of the numbers showcases the capacity of Medium ability create stories and how many were published in publications, that month we actually published over 4K stories so we can say we did input 5% of the overall stories on Medium during September.
And they did suspend a ton of accounts for breaking the Medium rules. That was just in September.
Although it didn’t say how many members were suspended If we assume 50% then that is more than half a million dollars in revenue being reclaimed by Medium.
As you may know our views and reads started to increase a lot right after August mainly during September but the earnings started to fall during this time period as well.
Since we or I have been writing about stats for so long there is a bigger trend that many have always called out.
First, we have an increase in traffic and the earnings slowly start to drop by 10–20% per month and now we are basically half the earnings per reads (EPR) as the May numbers.
Why May?
I do believe and many have remember that the earnings started to drop significantly during June. Where the reads dropped by 30% and the earnings dropped by 50%.
It was like the end of the world for some while July remained almost the same and then the big news came in August of adding the 77 countries into MPP.
Something feels pretty off at the time, I know that India has been delayed for a year from being added into MPP but somehow Medium seems to be in a rush to add all the countries at once.
Do you feel the same?
If it wasn’t for growth or the numbers as Medium like to refer to then why would they add all of them this year and not one or two the year before?
Was it due to Stripe?
I’m sure that is not the correct question as many countries are already stripe supported.
So what could it be to add all the countries at once despite knowing that there will be a lot of technical and practical issues?
And Medium has reported their first-time profit not long before that.
Are they seeking for short-term number increase to boost the stats of Medium financial report and getting ready for something like an initial public offering? (IPO)
Due to Medium being privately held, they do not really need to explain anything to the public if it is within the law and what we sign up for in the terms.
So the 2024 roundup numbers just came out 2 weeks ago and here are the highlights:
If Medium went IPO with these numbers, I’m sure the market would give it a good multiple and it does not include how much profit Medium already made till now.
Yet, the truth is we the writer are the center of the Medium product but we are not the main customer as the writer is an expense and the pure reader is the actual revenue.
As of now, this is what I see:
#1 Fewer writers left each month before payout (more profits for Medium)
A Medium no longer needs to pay for the account that is being suspended and also gets to keep its membership cost since they broke the rules.
#2 More Readers and EPR that pay less (more profits for Medium)
That means more subscribers that paid while the earnings are being suppressed to a certain rate, which we all have experienced.
#3 Removed a ton of spam and AI content (more profits for Medium)
As many of these accounts are paid member that means even more expense saved due to them breaking the rules within a 30-day period or never receiving their payout.
As we know everything is pointing to a bright future for Medium but not so much for the average writer who is just trying to get by and hopes to get some momentum going.
Writers = cost and readers = revenue, we are talking about those who read maybe a few articles a day and barely post an article on Medium.
One thing I see is the change of MPP plans for writers like the cost of being a writer and maybe a discount version of only read and write 1–2 posts a day.
Anything could be waiting for us in 2025 as we know that there have been many updates but we barely get to know what happened or what is their plans.
Do you see Medium going IPO soon?
My guess will be sooner or later. As I mentioned your Medium account will be valuable someday.
Thanks for Reading
This story was originally published on [Medium] and is cross-posted here for a wider audience.
Do you want to support me with $1,2,3,4, or $5 a month?
Your support is my honor, I’m not just saying that, it does motivate me to work harder at least.
$1 per month (does not mean you’re cheap but anything comes with a start)
$2 per month (make a pair and a set is just above the ground)
$3 per month (middle and balancing life, stay still and calm)
$4 per month (upgrading here for a better view, I see you near the front roll)
$5 per month (if you paid full price you are at the top of my world)
Your support is always appreciated even if you are a free subscriber.
Thanks again for reading.
If Medium does do an IPO, I see them following the Reddit route. It makes sense if you ask me.